The #crypto market added 0.5% in 24 hours to $2.46 trillion as a rebound in risk appetite in stocks helped altcoins attract buying interest. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index added 1 point to 72 (Greed).
#Bitcoin is avoiding sharp swings and is trading at $66.75K on Wednesday morning, adding 0.3% in 24 hours but remaining inside the previous day's range. It looks like a very cautious testing of the 50-day moving average (now at $67.3K), but just shy of surpassing it for the third day in a row.
#Ethereum appears more upbeat, adding 2.3% in 24 hours to $3250, once again near the highs since 13 April. However, Ethereum's decline has been deeper, pulling the price back below the support area of March and the first few days of April. Right now, the price is 6% below the 50-day MA that Bitcoin is nearing.
#Bitcoin is avoiding sharp swings and is trading at $66.75K on Wednesday morning, adding 0.3% in 24 hours but remaining inside the previous day's range. It looks like a very cautious testing of the 50-day moving average (now at $67.3K), but just shy of surpassing it for the third day in a row.
#Ethereum appears more upbeat, adding 2.3% in 24 hours to $3250, once again near the highs since 13 April. However, Ethereum's decline has been deeper, pulling the price back below the support area of March and the first few days of April. Right now, the price is 6% below the 50-day MA that Bitcoin is nearing.
The US dollar's gains stalled last week, and on Tuesday, it lost a third of a cent against a basket of major currencies to 105.4 from a peak of 106.3 the week before.
Yesterday's pullback more closely resembles the start of broader profit-taking than a reversal of the dollar's upward trend since early March.
The dollar was somewhat overheated after the 10-12 April spike. In addition, earlier this month, the #DXY entered the turning area of last October. As often happens, the ascent to the previous extremums is fast, but their overcoming indicates a change of the market regime, which happens only after a significant shakeout.
The formal reason for the weakening of the dollar on Tuesday was the positive dynamics of stock indices and the strengthening of the pound, with less certainty for a soon rate cut from BoE.
Yesterday's pullback more closely resembles the start of broader profit-taking than a reversal of the dollar's upward trend since early March.
The dollar was somewhat overheated after the 10-12 April spike. In addition, earlier this month, the #DXY entered the turning area of last October. As often happens, the ascent to the previous extremums is fast, but their overcoming indicates a change of the market regime, which happens only after a significant shakeout.
The formal reason for the weakening of the dollar on Tuesday was the positive dynamics of stock indices and the strengthening of the pound, with less certainty for a soon rate cut from BoE.
Now, there are higher chances for deepening the DXY correction with the potential to go down to 105.3 or even to the area of 104.8-105.0, where many turning points are concentrated. Such a plunge would increase the appeal of buying the dollar against major currencies, removing the technical overheating.
The ability to rise from current levels opens a fast road to the April highs near 106.3, with the finale of this journey near 108.0.
The bearish scenario for the dollar, in our view, will be activated in the event of a failure under 104.8, forcing a search for support in the 103.80-104.0 area.
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The ability to rise from current levels opens a fast road to the April highs near 106.3, with the finale of this journey near 108.0.
The bearish scenario for the dollar, in our view, will be activated in the event of a failure under 104.8, forcing a search for support in the 103.80-104.0 area.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY under bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 167.00
EURJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the price broke through the key resistance level 165.00, which has been reversing the price from March.
The breakout of the resistance level 165.00 accelerated the active impulse waves iii, 3 and (5).
Give the strength of the active uptrend and the continuation of the yen outflows, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 167.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
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#EURJPY under bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 167.00
EURJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the price broke through the key resistance level 165.00, which has been reversing the price from March.
The breakout of the resistance level 165.00 accelerated the active impulse waves iii, 3 and (5).
Give the strength of the active uptrend and the continuation of the yen outflows, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 167.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from resistance level 0.8625
Likely to fall to support level 0.8550
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.8625, which has been reversing the price from January, intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from November.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8625 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing
Give the predominant daily downtrend and the bearish euro sentiment seen today, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8550.
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#EURGBP reversed from resistance level 0.8625
Likely to fall to support level 0.8550
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.8625, which has been reversing the price from January, intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from November.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8625 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing
Give the predominant daily downtrend and the bearish euro sentiment seen today, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8550.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
USDJPY surges past 155.5 📈 on the eve of BoJ meeting 🌃
💴Can YEN tumble any lower?
💴Can YEN tumble any lower?
Anonymous Poll
49%
📈 BUY
51%
📉 SELL
Over the past 24 hours, the #crypto market has lost more than 3.5%, falling to a capitalisation of $2.37 trillion.
Bitcoin shows a decline with a similar amplitude; Ethereum lost less than 3%, while BNB added 0.1%, and Solana fell by 6.5%.
On Wednesday, #Bitcoin retreated significantly from its 50-day moving average, which we see as an important manifestation of bearish strength. Most crypto traders clearly took this signal.
For example, on the daily charts of #Solana and #Cardano, the rebound over the past ten days now looks like a tactical retreat by the bears, who decided to sell the market again on Wednesday. It is worth keeping a close eye on whether selling can bring the price below the previous local lows, around $125 for Solana and $0.4 for Cardano.
Bitcoin shows a decline with a similar amplitude; Ethereum lost less than 3%, while BNB added 0.1%, and Solana fell by 6.5%.
On Wednesday, #Bitcoin retreated significantly from its 50-day moving average, which we see as an important manifestation of bearish strength. Most crypto traders clearly took this signal.
For example, on the daily charts of #Solana and #Cardano, the rebound over the past ten days now looks like a tactical retreat by the bears, who decided to sell the market again on Wednesday. It is worth keeping a close eye on whether selling can bring the price below the previous local lows, around $125 for Solana and $0.4 for Cardano.
The Nasdaq100 might retreat to 15800
Change in the Nasdaq100. The selling on the Nasdaq100 from 12 to 19 April, which sent the index down more than 7%, has stimulated buying interest this week. They see falling prices as an opportunity to buy stocks at a reduced cost.
RSI dynamics. The rebound of the index coincided with the recovery of the RSI indicator on daily charts after it reached the oversold zone (below 30). Nevertheless, the April correction can be seen as a normalisation after a period of overbought conditions.
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the "fear" zone, with a low of 32 last week and a subsequent recovery to 40. A similar stock market correction lasting three months last year also included periods of improving sentiment as part of an overall downtrend.
Change in the Nasdaq100. The selling on the Nasdaq100 from 12 to 19 April, which sent the index down more than 7%, has stimulated buying interest this week. They see falling prices as an opportunity to buy stocks at a reduced cost.
RSI dynamics. The rebound of the index coincided with the recovery of the RSI indicator on daily charts after it reached the oversold zone (below 30). Nevertheless, the April correction can be seen as a normalisation after a period of overbought conditions.
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the "fear" zone, with a low of 32 last week and a subsequent recovery to 40. A similar stock market correction lasting three months last year also included periods of improving sentiment as part of an overall downtrend.
Current Situation and Expectations. The Nasdaq100 lost about 1.2% on Wednesday, and the drop from high to low in futures was 2% in 8 hours. The 17700 level has become resistant again. Changes in Fed key rate expectations and investor inertia backed by macroeconomic reports could lead to a repeat of last year's market pattern with a multi-month correction.
Potential downside targets. The area of the 200-day moving average, passing through 16300 and pointing upwards, could be a potential downside target. There is more chance of support in the 15800-16000 range, where the market encountered strong resistance in July 2023 and pushed back for upside in November.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Potential downside targets. The area of the 200-day moving average, passing through 16300 and pointing upwards, could be a potential downside target. There is more chance of support in the 15800-16000 range, where the market encountered strong resistance in July 2023 and pushed back for upside in November.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
USD strengthened, and stocks fell after the US data. The focus was on the preliminary Q1 GDP estimate. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast. Disappointment increased given that exceeding forecasts has become the norm. GDP growth for the same quarter a year earlier fell to 3.0% from 3.1%.
In contrast, the price index showed a 3.1% increase from 1.6% previously. Thus, the U.S. economy simultaneously faced increased inflationary pressures and slowing growth. This has caused even more concerns among those who fear stagflation.
At the same time, a new batch of very positive weekly unemployment data was released. Initial jobless claims fell to 207K, the lowest since February. The number of repeat claims fell to 1781K - the lowest in three months. It is worth noting that these are very low figures by historical standards. The tense situation in the labour market will create domestic inflationary pressures even if commodity prices start to decline.
In contrast, the price index showed a 3.1% increase from 1.6% previously. Thus, the U.S. economy simultaneously faced increased inflationary pressures and slowing growth. This has caused even more concerns among those who fear stagflation.
At the same time, a new batch of very positive weekly unemployment data was released. Initial jobless claims fell to 207K, the lowest since February. The number of repeat claims fell to 1781K - the lowest in three months. It is worth noting that these are very low figures by historical standards. The tense situation in the labour market will create domestic inflationary pressures even if commodity prices start to decline.
Viking Sets Sail for IPO on May 1st – Catch the Waves with FxPro!
Viking Holdings, the cruise line known for its luxurious escapes, is setting sail for the public market, with an expected trading date of May 1, 2024. But you don’t need a ticket to ride this wave!
Here’s how you can chart your course with CFDs:
Buy the Dip or Sell the Swell? Viking’s IPO is expected to be valued at up to $10.8 billion, so the choice is yours! CFDs let you trade on price movements, no matter the direction.
The expected price range of $21-$25 per share makes CFD trading Viking accessible, with trading offered from 0.01 of a share.
👉The new Stock will be available to Buy or Sell on the FxPro MT5 account shortly after it goes live.
Viking Holdings, the cruise line known for its luxurious escapes, is setting sail for the public market, with an expected trading date of May 1, 2024. But you don’t need a ticket to ride this wave!
Here’s how you can chart your course with CFDs:
Buy the Dip or Sell the Swell? Viking’s IPO is expected to be valued at up to $10.8 billion, so the choice is yours! CFDs let you trade on price movements, no matter the direction.
The expected price range of $21-$25 per share makes CFD trading Viking accessible, with trading offered from 0.01 of a share.
👉The new Stock will be available to Buy or Sell on the FxPro MT5 account shortly after it goes live.
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from key support level 1.6910
– Likely to rise to resistance level 1.7230
GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed up sharply from the key support level 1.6910, (former monthly low from February), standing well below the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6910 created the strong daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – which stopped the pervious wave 2.
Give the strength of the support level 1.6910, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.7230 (which stopped the pervious wave b).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#GBPCAD reversed from key support level 1.6910
– Likely to rise to resistance level 1.7230
GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed up sharply from the key support level 1.6910, (former monthly low from February), standing well below the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6910 created the strong daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – which stopped the pervious wave 2.
Give the strength of the support level 1.6910, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.7230 (which stopped the pervious wave b).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.9135
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9360
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.9135, which has been reversing the price from the start of April, intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.9135 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer Doji.
Give the strength of the support level 1.9135, GBPAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.9360.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.9135
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9360
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.9135, which has been reversing the price from the start of April, intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.9135 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer Doji.
Give the strength of the support level 1.9135, GBPAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.9360.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Market Dynamics: The cryptocurrency market stabilised, losing just 0.1% of capitalisation and dropping to $2.37 trillion over the last 24 hours. After the halving, the bulls intensified their efforts to boost prices, but by the end of the week, the bears took the initiative.
Bitcoin under pressure: Bitcoin has been losing value (0.7%) since early Friday, reaching $64.2K, despite rising 1.2% the day before. The currency continues to correct, remaining at the bottom of the range set in March. The RSI is signalling a possible further decline in price.
Mining gets harder: Bitcoin's mining complexity increased by 1.99%, reaching a record of 88.1 T, with an average hashrate of 726.3 EH/s.
Bitcoin under pressure: Bitcoin has been losing value (0.7%) since early Friday, reaching $64.2K, despite rising 1.2% the day before. The currency continues to correct, remaining at the bottom of the range set in March. The RSI is signalling a possible further decline in price.
Mining gets harder: Bitcoin's mining complexity increased by 1.99%, reaching a record of 88.1 T, with an average hashrate of 726.3 EH/s.
Bank of Japan left the key rate QE programme unchanged. This inaction increased the pressure on Yen.
USDJPY reached 156.80 and EURJPY nears 2007–2008 levels.
USDJPY has already surpassed the levels where the October 2022 intervention took place and where the market reversal occurred about a year later. This begs the question of ‘when’, although the question of ‘will they’ is still relevant.
Central banks and governments do not focus on the nominal levels of individual currency pairs. They care about dynamics, as abrupt changes can cause inflation and economic shock. Therefore, it is more useful to look at the dynamics to a basket of currencies.
The nominal effective exchange rate of the yen has retreated to its lowest levels since the 1990s. The yen reversal to growth in 1997 on the back of crises in developing countries was at about the same level. The pressures of the global financial crisis in 2007 turned the yen up 5% higher. Thus, the current levels are not an anomaly.
USDJPY reached 156.80 and EURJPY nears 2007–2008 levels.
USDJPY has already surpassed the levels where the October 2022 intervention took place and where the market reversal occurred about a year later. This begs the question of ‘when’, although the question of ‘will they’ is still relevant.
Central banks and governments do not focus on the nominal levels of individual currency pairs. They care about dynamics, as abrupt changes can cause inflation and economic shock. Therefore, it is more useful to look at the dynamics to a basket of currencies.
The nominal effective exchange rate of the yen has retreated to its lowest levels since the 1990s. The yen reversal to growth in 1997 on the back of crises in developing countries was at about the same level. The pressures of the global financial crisis in 2007 turned the yen up 5% higher. Thus, the current levels are not an anomaly.
US Personal Spending increased by 0.8% in March, repeating the previous month's figure and beating the expected 0.6% growth. Disposable income is growing more modestly, up 0.5% in March (matching forecasts) and 0.2% in February. The increase in household spending may be due to increased confidence in future income on the background of strong employment, although pessimists may argue that this is a consequence of inflationary pressures.
The savings rate fell to 3.2% in March. The rate was temporarily lower in mid-2022, when the public had significant savings and government pandemic paychecks. The rate was persistently below current levels between January 2005 and April 2008 - during the mortgage boom. This comparison is alarming.
The savings rate fell to 3.2% in March. The rate was temporarily lower in mid-2022, when the public had significant savings and government pandemic paychecks. The rate was persistently below current levels between January 2005 and April 2008 - during the mortgage boom. This comparison is alarming.
Traders in the currency and stock markets are paying particular attention to the Core Personal Expenditure Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. This measure of inflation maintained its 2.8% y/y pace, contrary to expectations of a slowdown to 2.6%. The overall personal spending price index increased to 2.7% from 2.5% y/y.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in June fell to around 10% from 70% just a month ago. Expectations for the first cut in the new cycle have moved to September (with a 60% probability). At the same time, ideas that there may be no cut at all this year, or even an imminent increase, are gaining traction.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in June fell to around 10% from 70% just a month ago. Expectations for the first cut in the new cycle have moved to September (with a 60% probability). At the same time, ideas that there may be no cut at all this year, or even an imminent increase, are gaining traction.