本章还提出在无法精确计算概率的情况下也要估计概率的建议：总统支持保护单身母亲，也支持削弱本地政府的权利。根据你拥有的信息，你预估总统一定会支持保护单身母亲，那么可能性记为你不确定总统是否会支持削弱本地政府，所以你觉得可能性应该记为 0.8那么这句句子的可能性为P(A)*P(B) = 1*0.8 = 80%现实世界有很多事情不能精确计算概率，请用工具武装自己，接近真相

理性之道、Less Wrong，群星和别的什么

Part A, 成为负担的细节（Burdensome Details）未来学家？实际上，句子每加上一个 "and"，它的概率就要重新计算。然而，越“逼真”的句子越使人确信 “人类文明将在百年内毁灭” “人类文明将在百年内毁灭，地球生物圈将重新洗牌” 多出来的细节使得句子的发生概率下降（但人们常常不这么想），这就是合取谬误（Conjunction fallcy）。 If you can lighten your burden you must do so.

本章还提出在无法精确计算概率的情况下也要估计概率的建议：

总统支持保护单身母亲，也支持削弱本地政府的权利。

根据你拥有的信息，你预估总统一定会支持保护单身母亲，那么可能性记为
你不确定总统是否会支持削弱本地政府，所以你觉得可能性应该记为 0.8

那么这句句子的可能性为
P(A)*P(B) = 1*0.8 = 80%

现实世界有很多事情不能精确计算概率，请用工具武装自己，接近真相

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The lead from Wall Street offers little clarity as the major averages opened lower on Friday and then bounced back and forth across the unchanged line, finally finishing mixed and little changed.The Dow added 33.18 points or 0.10 percent to finish at 34,798.00, while the NASDAQ eased 4.54 points or 0.03 percent to close at 15,047.70 and the S&P 500 rose 6.50 points or 0.15 percent to end at 4,455.48. For the week, the Dow rose 0.6 percent, the NASDAQ added 0.1 percent and the S&P gained 0.5 percent.The lackluster performance on Wall Street came on uncertainty about the outlook for the markets following recent volatility.