最好的纠正的办法是想想上次做类似的事情花了多少时间，也就是说，用客观而不是主观的方式来做出预计。但是当你在做一件新的事，没有历史可以借鉴的时候，你就需要非常非常非常地悲观，实际情况与你的预计相比好和坏的比例才会各占一半。事实上，悲观到比现实还差的程度是非常困难的。
-- 哈利波特与理性之道
BY 理性之道、Less Wrong，群星和别的什么
Telegram is an aspiring new messaging app that’s taking the world by storm. The app is free, fast, and claims to be one of the safest messengers around. It allows people to connect easily, without any boundaries.You can use channels on Telegram, which are similar to Facebook pages. If you’re wondering how to find channels on Telegram, you’re in the right place. Keep reading and you’ll find out how. Also, you’ll learn more about channels, creating channels yourself, and the difference between private and public Telegram channels.
理性之道、Less Wrong，群星和别的什么 from us