分享一篇很有趣的 文章。用梯度提升的方法来改进 ARIMA，AutoARIMA 先拿到起始参数，Boosting 过程和普通 GBM 一样都是用残差代替梯度计算。角度倒是听新颖的， 就是听着可能速度有点慢，而且不能确定序列角度来说 Boosting 是否真的有意义，作者在 Kaggle 去年的 M4 上做了些实验，看着还行，有点意思。轮子在这里：https://github.com/tblume1992/ThymeBoost
BY Data Science Archive
A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.
That growth environment will include rising inflation and interest rates. Those upward shifts naturally accompany healthy growth periods as the demand for resources, products and services rise. Importantly, the Federal Reserve has laid out the rationale for not interfering with that natural growth transition.It's not exactly a fad, but there is a widespread willingness to pay up for a growth story. Classic fundamental analysis takes a back seat. Even negative earnings are ignored. In fact, positive earnings seem to be a limiting measure, producing the question, "Is that all you've got?" The preference is a vision of untold riches when the exciting story plays out as expected.
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